Providence ran hot last year, but its metrics suggest a regression, and several matchup miscues point to Miami having the edge today. Find out more in our college basketball betting picks.
The first round of the Hall of Fame Tip-off Tournament will match a pair of undefeated teams up in the Providence Friars against Miami Hurricanes. These two squads have no problem getting out in running and scoring, so it should make for an entertaining affair.
After their Elite Eight run last season, the Hurricanes started the year with big expectations and three straight wins. They arrive at this game ranked just outside the Top 25 and know that a championship in this tournament will likely give them a spot there.
The Friars are coming off a good season as well. Providence won 27 games a season ago, making it to the Sweet 16 and losing to eventual National Champion Kansas. They come into this game from a win against Stonehill in which they scored 100 points.
What’s the Best Bet in this matchup? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Miami vs. Providence.
Miami vs Providence best odds
Miami vs Providence picks and predictions
You’d have expected ACC Player of the Year Candidate Isaiah Wong and high-profile transfer Nigel Pack to lead Miami in scoring. That has yet to be the case. Instead, Jordan Miller has carried the load for the ‘Canes, averaging 15.5 PPG. He joins four starters averaging double-figures. That speaks to Miami’s balance — it’s also a contributing factor to why they’ll win today.
The data is limited, but the Friars’ defense has shown some flaws in two key spots.
One is spot-up defense. Teams score an average of 1.05 points per possession on spot-up sets against Providence, which ranks in the bottom 20% of College Basketball in defending them. In addition, teams have shot a reasonably high percentage against them from beyond the 3-point line.
That’s a problem against Miami, who has the 33rd-best 3-point make rate so far this year. Pack has yet to get going from there, but it’s coming. According to ShotQuality, the Kansas State transfer is taking the second-best quality of three-point shots of any player in the Country. Given his historical numbers, lighting it up from beyond the arc is inevitable.
As I noted early this season, you need more angles to back a team in college basketball than just 3-point shooting. The variance of jump shots is too high — if you rely on that, you will have a bad time. We have another big angle today, and that’s the Friars’ pick-and-roll defense.
Teams, not necessarily good ones, are averaging nearly a point per possession against the Friars in pick-and-roll situations. That sounds like a nightmare problem to have against guards like Wong and Pack. They haven’t reached complete chemistry yet, but that matters much here. Pack has already shown he’s one of basketball’s best pick-and-roll ball scorers. He’s averaging 1.2 points per possession on these sets. As for Wong, he’s struggled to start the season, but we know what he’s capable of.
What wins early in the season is generally guard play. Miami has a huge advantage here. I haven’t mentioned the Miami defense vs. Providence offends because I’m not sure it matters much. The Canes have two significant benefits on the court that should allow their best players to thrive. That doesn’t even mention the balanced scoring they’ve shown already this season. It won’t surprise me if Miami blows Providence out today. If it doesn’t, I still feel very comfortable saying it will score too much for the Friars to keep up.
My best bet: Miami -2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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Miami vs Providence spread analysis
This spread opened up at 2.5 points and hasn’t moved. That comes despite 73% of the bets being on Providence, according to our Covers Consensus page. Some of that money is due to the Friars’ insane ATS streak. One of the notables of those runs is 4-0 ATS after a straight-up win.
To say that Providence’s tournament run a season ago was built on eggshells is to describe it accurately. The Friars were, quite literally, one of the luckiest teams in College Basketball. KenPom ranked them as such when they finished the year No. 1 in his “luck” metric.
In addition, ShotQuality measured the Friars as having one of the most significant differences between actual shooting percentage and ShotQuality. Many of the things they were doing were simply unsustainable, and, in a vacuum, you’ll likely see significant regression this season. That starts today against a team with more talent and athleticism than them.
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Miami vs. Providence Over/Under analysis
I’ll stay off the total here but have a lean to the Over. It should be an up-tempo game, as both squads are better when they can push the pace. Their tempo ratings have yet to accurately represent that, but the eye test says something different.
With that in mind, several notable trends suggest the Under is the way to go. After scoring 90 points in its previous games, Providence has played the Under in four straight games. In addition to that, the Under is 5-1 in Providence’s last six neutral site games. My handicap and the trends are in direct disagreement with one another. That’s one of the reasons I’ll stay away together.
Miami vs Providence betting trend to know
Miami is 5-1-1 ATS against teams with a winning record in its last seven games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Miami vs. Providence.
Miami vs Providence game info
|Lease:||Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT|
|Date:||Saturday, November 19, 2022|
|Tip off:||4:00 p.m. ET|